Margot Wallström rightfully regrets the absence of female names in the discussion about the top jobs. Frankfurter Rundschau writes that Wallström mentions a couple of (female) European politicians as potentials for the top jobs (without being explicit about the/which president position): Angela Merkel, Mary Robinson, Tarja Halonen, Emma Bonino and Anna Diamantopoulou.
Maybe even more relevant is her criticism of the backdoor wrangling about names – instead of a public contest.
News of a strange candidacy has reached me via the handy route of Google Alerts and ‘Select Property‘, a website that gives some news about Bulgaria in English for property investors. Apparently Simeon Saxe-Coburg, formerly Prime Minister of Bulgaria (2001-2005) and formerly Tsar Simeon II of Bulgaria intends to put himself forward as a candidate to be President of the European Council. Anyone in favour of the first Tsar of the EU? Maybe he also needs a Prince of Darkness alongside him?
Update 3.4.08 – Leader of the ALDE Group in the EP Graham Watson has welcomed Saxe-Coburg’s candidacy in a rather guarded fashion.
(Please note: this entry was posted on 31st March, not 1st April)
Richard Corbett MEP has written a blog entry speculating about the President of the European Council, and President of the European Commission positions. He raises the issue of One President (but doesn’t link to us – we’re probably a bit radical) and also has an amusing suggestion – make Anders Fogh Rasmussen President of the European Council, and Poul Nyrup Rasmussen President of the European Commission. So whatever President the press would refer to his name would be Rasmussen… Made me smile – not really viable though!
Corbett sadly does not allow comments on the posts on his blog so I can’t post a link to whodoicall.eu, but some enterprising people (eurosceptics I suspect) have setup a spoof Corbett blog where comments are allowed.
What do Bertie Ahern, Jean Claude Juncker, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, José Manuel Barroso and Tony Blair all have in common? Well, they are all likely to get more backing from the centre-right for any candidacies for top jobs in the EU next year… and they are all men.
Party political balance and geographical balance are always at the top of the agenda when it comes to the carve-up of candidates in the EU, but there are growing calls for gender balance to be taken into account as well. Margot Wallström was the first to cite the lack of women candidates at the end of last week. This was followed by an ALDE press conference (watch it on Europe By Satellite here – needs Real Player) in the European Parliament with Diana Wallis, Karin Riis-Jørgensen and Anneli Jäätteenmäki to call for at least one woman in the top three EU positions (Commission President, European Council President, EU Foreign Minister).
Neelie Kroes also puts in an appearance and she states that without efforts from the European Parliament, the Netherlands government, and from Commission President Barroso to get 1/3 of the Commissioners to be female she would not have managed to secure the nomination to be Commissioner for Competition. Considering she’s considered one of the more effective Commissioners that’s a significant statement.
So who are the women who could be considered for any of these positions? In no particular order: Margot Wallström, Neelie Kroes, Tarja Halonen, Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga, Angela Merkel, Ségolène Royal, Dora Bakoyannis, Ursula Plassnik…? I’m surely missing some as I don’t know all the top ministers in all Member States. Suggestions?
(Hat tip for the link to the press conference: Brussels Blogger)
It saddens me today to read that even one of my favourite EU blogs – Certain ideas of Europe – falls into the trap of calling the President of the European Council position “first standing president of the European Union“. No, no, no. There’s the Commission too, and that has a full time President too. So let’s get the terms right. OK, few citizens know what the European Council is, but how many non-EU geeks read The Economist’s blog about the EU anyway?
As for the speculation – the fun bit – I reckon the Economist has a point with their analysis of Zapatero’s win. Blair managing to become President of the European Council was always going to be a long shot, and there’s no way he would want the admin (and 5 days a week job!) that the One President job we’re advocating would require. Blair’s last hope is that Berlusconi will win April’s elections in Italy, and that a Sarko-Berlo-Blair axis can manage to win the day. What a scary thought.
The latest odds for the President of the European Council position from Irish betting firm Paddy Power can be found here.
I thought it might be worth reviewing “candidates” for the post of President of the European Council:
Tony Blair: most frequently mentioned I would say, has provoked negative campaign: www.stopblair.eu
José Manuel Barroso: could be “promoted” (= abgeschoben) to this post if different Commission president is chosen; would also be ideal candidate if One President as argued on this website is installed; I actually think that Barroso is just the kind of guy for this position
Guy Verhofstadt: outgoing Belgian Prime Minister and big looser in the Commission President game of 2004. Is frequently tipped for any post but would also be ideal candidate. However, I think he would be even more useful as Commission President.
Jean-Claude Juncker: longest serving prime minister (I think) and probably best qualified candidate (next to Verhofstadt). He has not yet indicated if he wants any EU post and seems to spread rumours about his unstable health from time to tome. However, as for Verhofstadt, I think he would be even more useful as Commission President.
Bertie Ahern: could be handy for him to move to Brussels in order to avoid further investitations in Ireland
Mikuláš Dzurinda: led a successful (centre-)right government in Slovakia, could come in if candidate from CEE is needed
Aleksander Kwaśniewski: made a good showing on EU scene as Polish president but became more known in his home country for his problems with alcohol lately, is known to have European ambitions (at least by running for EP in 2009) could come in handy if left-leaning candidate from CEE is neede
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing: had the Constitution been ratified as originally foreseen, many commentators had tipped on Giscard to take over the post over the initial period. By now he should be out of the game – but never underestimate the French…
Angela Merkel: only woman in the field and (despite of that) would obviously be the ideal candidate – but unless her government breaks up by then and she takes a deep dive in the polls (both quite unlikely), we should rather keep her in mind for 2014
UK website politicalbetting.com has a post about the chances of Tony Blair becoming President of the European Council (they actually call it First Permanent President of the EU – falling into the trap of the un-initiated) and there are prices for the ‘leading’ candidates. Blair (2/1 favourite – what a joke!), Juncker (3/1) and Ahern (5/1) are in there, but what about Angela Merkel, José Manuel Barroso and Peter Sutherland? Plus Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Jacques Chirac and Silvio Berlusconi are in the list and I’ve heard no mention of candidacies from these folks. Anyway, politicalbetting better keep an eye on this blog for better analysis of the odds.
[UPDATE - 14.04.08]
Blair has dropped in the betting market, and now Bertie Ahern is 2-1 favourite according to Paddy Power.
More excellent analysis by Stanley Crossick about the different EU jobs up for grabs in 2009, and the different timetables for agreement for all of them. Crossick is very clear in his writing, but the overall situation is very complex – One President would surely help citizens to understand? I feel most sorry for Joaquin Almunia, who might loose his job at the start of 2009, despite having done nothing wrong. Plus there’s a new name in the ring for European Council President – Peter Sutherland.
Tricky negotiations behind closed doors and horsetrading – that’s what you get when a position is to be elected by 27 Heads of State and Government. The Guardian has a good analysis of the latest goings-on, and how country size matters at these moments. One President would help solve all of that – if Blair reckons he’s popular across Europe he could get a political party to back him… 
European Tribune has managed to generate plenty of press coverage for its ‘Stop Blair’ petition – more precisely they are against Blair being nominated as President of the European Council. While the reasons European Tribune states against Blair’s candidacy are genuine concerns (Iraq war, relations with the USA, UK not in the Euro or Schengen) there are other factors in favour of a candidate like Blair – his charisma, drive, determination, speech-making ability…
However, more profoundly, European Tribune has ignored all of the inter-institutional dynamics at play with regard to the nominations for the top positions in 2009. If there is to be a stong President of the EU, he or she needs to be President of both the European Commission and European Council. That’s the only way to ensure democratic legitimacy of the post, and to prevent the domination of inter-governmental decision making.
As it currently stand, European Tribune can organise as many polls as they like against Blair, but as the Heads of State and Government nominate the President of the European Council there’s no guarantee that citizens are going to be listened to.