Wallström fait face à 3 problèmes dans ses efforts pour obtenir une femme dans l’une des trois premières positions. Tout d’abord la liste des candidats possibles n’est pas si longtemps – la plupart des gouvernements nationaux, et en particulier ceux des plus grands États membres 4, restent dominés par les hommes. Merkel est la principale exception à cette règle, mais son gouvernement n’est pas exactement de rupture avec d’autres femmes. Deuxièmement, le débat sur les postes est en cours entre les capitales des pays plutôt que dans manière franche et ouverte – de façon quelle que soit Wallström dit, je ne crains-un est à l’écoute. Troisièmement, Blair (et peut-être aussi Juncker, Rasmussen et Ahern, et Barroso pour la Commission) ont activement fait des signes qu’ils sont intéressés dans les premières positions. Wallström catégoriquement règles elle-même et il n’ya pas de femme encore faire un effort pour obtenir des nouvelles de leur candidature à l’air libre.

Polly Toynbee, écrit en e! Sharp magazine [PDF], estime Wallström, elle-même devrait aller pour …

Wallström faces 3 problems in her efforts to get a woman into one of the top three positions. First of all the list of possible candidates is not that long – most national governments, and especially those of the largest 4 Member States, remain dominated by men. Merkel is the main exception to this, but her government is not exactly bursting with other women. Secondly, the debate about the top jobs is being conducted between national capitals rather than in an open and frank manner – so whatever Wallström says I fear no-one is listening. Thirdly, Blair (and possibly also Juncker, Rasmussen and Ahern, and Barroso for the Commission) have actively been making signs that they are interested in the top positions. Wallström categorically rules herself out and there is no woman as yet making an effort to get news about their candidacy out in the open.

Polly Toynbee, writing in e!Sharp magazine [PDF], thinks Wallström herself should go for it…

Now the eternal front-runner Juncker will finally get what he was going to get right from the start. What remains to be seen is, however, when he will take up his job. Will it alreay be in January or will it be postponed until after the EP elections and in parallel to the start of the new Commission in November 2009?

A number of influential MEPs have already suggested that just one member state might delay the formal ratification (e.g. the German president by postponing his signature) so that the new setting will only be effective for the second half of 2009.

This deal with a balance between the two big groups will therefore not give any indication the top posts for next year. You could only rule out Schulz and Buzek for Commission or European Council president but it is not that they were really in the game for that anyways.

First of all the problem with both of these campaigners for freedom is their age – Geremek is 76 and Havel 72, the latter having also been very ill. Everyday political work, late night negotiations in European Council meetings, is surely not something they would want to do? Furthermore would the political parties even want characters like these to play leading roles? After all they got to the top in large part through bravery and rebellion, not by slavish loyalty to a party machine.

So as far as I’m concerned, while talking about Geremek and Havel might shed light on the sorts of skills a European leader should have, I don’t think either is a serious candidate.

The interesting line from Quatremer is: “Beaucoup d’États membres ne veulent pas d’une personnalité qui ferait de l’ombre au président de la Commission européenne” – precisely. That’s the core of our argument at whodoicall.

Quatremer is also known as a defender of the French language – we do have a French version of this website under construction!

But aside from that, what are the challenges for the EU?

First of all as far as this website has been concerned, Bertie has been one of the favourites to take the job as President of the European Council from 2009. While the tribunal might taint his reputation to a certain extent, if he’s cleared then the way is open for a job in Brussels. I can’t work out the timetable for the work of the tribunal though – if investigations drag on then Bertie might lose his chance as the main negotiations for the top positions will take place in the second half of this year.

There’s also the rather large cloud on the horizon, namely the referendum in Ireland on the Treaty of Lisbon. Without a positive vote in Ireland then there won’t even be a position for Ahern to contest. My initial reaction was ‘oh, no, politicians will have their eye off the referendum’ but Fine Gael MEP Jim Higgins reckons the opposite – quoted in theparliament.com he reckons the prospects for ratification are significantly enhanced. But Fine Gael is the main opposition to Ahern’s Fianna Fáil in Irish politics, so surely Higgins would say that, as Fine Gael has been calling for Ahern to go for a long time.

Therein is also a potential issue for Ahern and his candidacy - Fianna Fáil is part of the UEN group in the European Parliament, also containing parties such as Law and Justice of the Kaczyński brothers. Would Ahern be sure to get EPP backing if he were to run?

First of all, is Rasmussen doing this in order to keep his focus on the forthcoming EU referendum(s) in Denmark?

Secondly does this leave the field open for the other Rasmussen (Poul Nyrup) to put himself forward for one of the top positions, with PES backing?