Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern is to step down on 6th May, citing the investigations in the Mahon Tribunal and the need to clear his name as the reason for his resignation. Ahern has been PM since June 1997, winning a third term of office in 2007. Finance Minister Brian Cowen is thought to be the favourite to take over.
But aside from that, what are the challenges for the EU?
First of all as far as this website has been concerned, Bertie has been one of the favourites to take the job as President of the European Council from 2009. While the tribunal might taint his reputation to a certain extent, if he’s cleared then the way is open for a job in Brussels. I can’t work out the timetable for the work of the tribunal though – if investigations drag on then Bertie might lose his chance as the main negotiations for the top positions will take place in the second half of this year.
There’s also the rather large cloud on the horizon, namely the referendum in Ireland on the Treaty of Lisbon. Without a positive vote in Ireland then there won’t even be a position for Ahern to contest. My initial reaction was ‘oh, no, politicians will have their eye off the referendum’ but Fine Gael MEP Jim Higgins reckons the opposite – quoted in theparliament.com he reckons the prospects for ratification are significantly enhanced. But Fine Gael is the main opposition to Ahern’s Fianna Fáil in Irish politics, so surely Higgins would say that, as Fine Gael has been calling for Ahern to go for a long time.
Therein is also a potential issue for Ahern and his candidacy - Fianna Fáil is part of the UEN group in the European Parliament, also containing parties such as Law and Justice of the Kaczyński brothers. Would Ahern be sure to get EPP backing if he were to run?