http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronis%C5%82aw_Geremek

In French : http://publiusleuropeen.typepad.com/publius/2008/01/geremek-un-meil.html

However, it doesn´t change the general reasoning.

The problem with these speculations is that they nearly always only consider one post at a time, and when you think about all three at the same time, things just don´t add up. For example, the most likely choice for FM seems to be Solana at the moment, and for the EC seems to be to give a second go to Barroso. If you add to this that the most likely Council candidate from my point of view at this point is Junker, I think you reach a deadlock. It´s not going to happen. No woman. 2 southern europeans and no-one from properly northern europe or eastern europe. Three centre-right, relatively old men (albeit Solana is very apolitical these days). And mostly, 2 very heavily French-influenced men (Junker and Barroso), which Britain will have trouble accepting.

Therefore we need to accept that it is quite likely that a seemingly outsider could come and disturb this.

From there on, I think the most unlikely post to go as planned is Council president. There are too many names in the open, it´s too sensitive, and Junker doesn´t seem to want it badly enough. The least likely would be EC president I think, if only because no-one apart from Barroso seems to be particularly eager to try being the first commission president with an EU president above them, without mentioning that *not* to keep him on would re-open the pandora box of French Federalism v. British pragmatism of 2004.

Therefore, I think I will take the assumption that, assuming the EPP-ED once again wins the elections (which seems likely), Barroso will stay in place.
I say the election results seem likely, because to shift the EP to the left you´d need a major shift of major european countries, which isn´t likely to happen, say in the UK or Italy. Germany also seems unlikely. In France, the socialists already won most of the French quota last time around, so it seems unlikely they manage to beat their own score by a considerable margin. That only leaves Spain and Poland, and a victory for the centre-right in only one of them would be enough to keep the status quo, wereas the centre-left would have to win both.
Anyway, as I said, I think it is likely that Barroso will remain EC president. From there on that means Solana can´t be FM. If the FM position is open, who is going to be put there? It can´t be someone too high-profile, most would not demean themselves to be FM, not with all that talk of Council presidency going around. So who?
Well, Michel Barnier already said he was interested. But he is just another centre-right, French, old man. Nothing to enthrall the leaders of Europe about.
One person that has been mentioned on this page is Fischer. he might just be the right person for the job, having incredible knowledge of international relations and good relationships with pretty much everyone. Would he be a good consensus though? Politically, it would be an interesting situation. If taking it only post-by-post, there´s no way in hell a green would make it to any of them. But taken together, there is something less scary for mainstream politicians to think “there is a green in one of the top 3 eu positions” than “the EU´s FM is a green”. This would however nearly annihilate the chances of a centre-left in any other of the 3 positions, which the socialists might not feel very happy about. Which also means that the last post (Council President) would according to my own rule have to be a high-profile centre-right female from eastern Europe, and unless Ukraine joins the eu in the next fortnight, that´s not going to happen.
So, if not Fischer, who? That´s when you start thinking, an eastern european would be great, especially if Barroso is at the EC. Would Lech Walesa do it? he´s maybe a bit too high-profile…
Anyway, if my assumption that Solana can´t be FM is justified, the FM will be pulled out of a hat anyway so there´s no point speculating, apart from assuming it quite likely s/he´ll be from a new member-state, and I would say centre-right, as the anemic lack of centre-left governments in CEE would mean that they would not have enough support from their own government if they were centre-left.

Now this leaves the biggie open. Council president. If Barroso is at the EC, and some eastern-european centre-right male is FM, that means the council presidency will 1) have to be a female, 2) from northern Europe (how convenient, it´s where most female politicians can be found) and probably 3) centre-left.
This leaves three obvious choices: Hallonnen, Mary Robinson and Margot Wallstrom. Margot said she didn´t want to do it, but might she be turned?
Mary Robinson would be the perfect candidate for the centre-left, but is she too much of a unstable and radical person for heads of states and governments to accept?
In this light, Hallonnen´s position seems a lot better…
I think we can dismiss any other nothern centre-left females as the position is too high-profile to pull some-one out of a hat…

So that would mean, Barroso at the EC, Hallonnen or Wallstrom at the Council, and some eastern european FM?

Now, if the PSE wins the elections, the situation is entirely different, and I think somewhat dirtier.
First, that means Barroso obviously can´t go on as EC president. This frees up the southern European factor and makes it quite likely Solana will be FM. A centre-left at the commission is an interesting question.
One possibility is a promotion within the Commission. Wallstrom springs to mind, but there are others, maybe Mandelson or Verheugen? I think Mandelson, because of his unfortunate passport and his opposition to most of the EC concerning some free-trade issues, can be ruled out. Verheugen is an interesting name. He´s such a long-time commissioner, he nearly belongs to the furniture by now. It is quite possible he has the ambition, but with germany having elections next year as well, would he be able to gather the support from Angela Merkel that he would no doubt need to have to be promoted?
No, I think the most likely promotion would be Wallstrom. She certainly has had enough publicity. And it would, conveniently for the council, fill up the female position and allow the council presidency to be a man.
This man could then be some east-european centre-right diplomatic male, which sounds a lot easier, and pulling a former head of state of, say, the czech republic, seems something feasible.

If the centre-left commission presidency goes to someone not in the commission currently, it gets a bit more complicated. One possibility is Verhofstadt. It would make the French and the Germans happy, and bring a bit of good-ole´ continental Delorism, which a lot, even in Britain, would agree is the devil we know, rather than the scary aspect of having an east-european there or a female. This would pave the way for a female council president, with no particular political obligation (after all, the PSE would have won the elections, so why would they not have two centre-lefts at the top?) which brings us back to Tarja Hallonnen…

If neither Verhofstadt nor anyone inside the Commission gets the EC presidency, I suppose it would have to be some centre-left eastern european, which is a tough nut. But I´ve skimmed out the most likely of the most likely of the most likely by now so I don´t think it will come to that.

Anyway, sorry to write such a long message, it was just a result of my musings when reading this page…

Besides, right now I find it more useful to discuss who should be elected the European Council President and try to create democratic pressure on the issue, than going back to the never-ending world of institutional affairs and demand a merger of the top EU posts. I think even idealists should talk more about persons than institutions in this matter.

Quite a bit depends on who will be chosen for the Commission presidency, and to a certain extent, on the European election results, too. It’s easy to guess that the Commission and European Council presidencies will be taken up by a conservative and by a socialist, respectively, and general geography also has a role to play. The last two Commission presidents have been from Southern Europe, a fact which is not likely to go unnoticed in the horse-trading of the European Council.

But it’s sad that fewer people are involved in choosing the European leaders than the leaders of China…