I thought it might be worth reviewing “candidates” for the post of President of the European Council:
Tony Blair: most frequently mentioned I would say, has provoked negative campaign: www.stopblair.eu
José Manuel Barroso: could be “promoted” (= abgeschoben) to this post if different Commission president is chosen; would also be ideal candidate if One President as argued on this website is installed; I actually think that Barroso is just the kind of guy for this position
Guy Verhofstadt: outgoing Belgian Prime Minister and big looser in the Commission President game of 2004. Is frequently tipped for any post but would also be ideal candidate. However, I think he would be even more useful as Commission President.
Jean-Claude Juncker: longest serving prime minister (I think) and probably best qualified candidate (next to Verhofstadt). He has not yet indicated if he wants any EU post and seems to spread rumours about his unstable health from time to tome. However, as for Verhofstadt, I think he would be even more useful as Commission President.
Bertie Ahern: could be handy for him to move to Brussels in order to avoid further investitations in Ireland
Mikuláš Dzurinda: led a successful (centre-)right government in Slovakia, could come in if candidate from CEE is needed
Aleksander Kwaśniewski: made a good showing on EU scene as Polish president but became more known in his home country for his problems with alcohol lately, is known to have European ambitions (at least by running for EP in 2009) could come in handy if left-leaning candidate from CEE is neede
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing: had the Constitution been ratified as originally foreseen, many commentators had tipped on Giscard to take over the post over the initial period. By now he should be out of the game – but never underestimate the French…
Angela Merkel: only woman in the field and (despite of that) would obviously be the ideal candidate – but unless her government breaks up by then and she takes a deep dive in the polls (both quite unlikely), we should rather keep her in mind for 2014
Doesn’t European Green Party have anyone to offer for this position? I would bet on Joschka Fischer, and I could see he his possibilities running to become President quite good. Especially in the situation where EPP, SPE or ALDE couldn’t get consensus. But I wouldn’t bet my money on Daniel Cohn-Bendit.
Now Fischer would be fun… But isn’t he too busy enjoying a retirement in the USA?
In Denmark the media can’t stop speculating about our own prime minister’s european ambitions, although they really are just rumours. Anders Fogh Rasmussen – being the man who re-united Europe in Copenhagen in 2002, a welfare-loving liberal, and the (step)father of EU’s favourite, new economic buzzword (Flexicurity) might stand a chance. He apparently also carries quite a bit of support from Sarkozy (although the value of that is questionable these days), and looks kind of italian (which should play great with… well… Italians and Scandinavian women!). On the down-side he has never mentioned european ambitions, isn’t much of a “people’s person” (he only recently learned to blink!) and is a personal friend of George W. Bush. He also hasn’t gotten rid of the danish opt-outs (yet) and is one of the few EU leaders who hasn’t regretted storming Iraq. I’d put him on the list, though
Actually Fischer is back in Germany and took actively part of elections in his home state Hessen. Nowadays he is working with few books and some kind of lecturer.
Also in Finland is full of rumours about the Rasmussen and his potential candidacy. But the main question behind all these rumours is “Are the people of Europe ready to vote pan-European by the ideology or geography?” My guessing is that first people gonna vote for their own boys, but maybe the next generation is ready to vote by heart.
Well, they need the possibility to vote first!
If the President of the European Council is just selected on his/her own, then that is done by the Heads of State and Government. No possibility to vote there!
[...] de la Commission ainsi qu’à celle du poste de Haut-Représentant de l’Union. Le JEF s’y applique déjà. Alors, quelles sont les règles du jeu? Le traité de Lisbonne étant sournoisement [...]
rasmussen always seemed like a man of convictions to me, but not the most european choice around. fischer is like a nightmare to me. it is a real pitty that one of the few real personalities is SO not-middle-of-the-road.
maybe someone who has retired?
few years back kohl would have been my dream-candidate.
What about the Finnish PresidentTarja Hallonnen? She is from a core member state with good relations to most countries, she was reelected for a second term with a larger margin, and she has a long experience in Government. But I guess a strong female social democrat might be too much to hope for…
well, wikipedia says:
“She publicly opposed the proposed free trade agreement of the European Economic Community (EEC, later European Union) in 1973, by signing a petition along with 500 other more-or-less prominent social democrats and socialists.”
and other indications of being left wing to the extreme… besides, opposes NATO, not exactly mainstream in EU-europe
thirdly, she is elected until 2012…
Dear David,
Do you really mean that only conservative (= capitalist) has a right or duty to become as a president of united Europe? Or you just accounted her possibilities to get elected?
Actually I think that she or person who shares same opinions and views could great possibilities to get elected. And maybe it would be something what citizens of Europe are waiting for. I think that EU needs more socialism, and maybe regular PES MPs and other politicians can’t answer on this call.. Because Europe is our common home, we need to have more political pluralism.
indeed i look at the EP and think that the strongest political group should not be ignored. a left-leaning president is surely an option, but the core-values of the EU should be shared by the person to lead the EU. to me it seems halonen, at least in the past, did not support them.
(btw 51,6 and 51,8 percent in second round elections are not that huge a triumph, considering her popularity)
one point i just realized, she speaks 7 languages (6 EU ones). thats great, as any candidate will have to be a good example in this respect
last note: i think the people should chose. i might vote for a left candidate (if she or he is the best) but i surely will accept the will of the majority, and so we all should.
Sorry David, if what you stood for in 1973 is still a problem today, then I think a lot of the candidates have a problem. Tony Blair was for example elected a British MP in 1983 on a manifesto which was in favour of Britain leaving the European Union.
And yes, Finland is not a member of NATO, and there is quite an obvious history to that, such as 1269 kilometers of border to Russia. They are however members of partnership for peace and to participate in NATO missions. Not being in favor of a Finnish membership in NATO is not exactly equivalent to having any problems with cooperating with NATO.
However, I guess I should thank you for reminding me about some of the more or less substantial arguments that will be raised against any woman that is up for the post.
Nice idea – having the EU citizens voting and choosing on the next European President-to-be – yet it is not really a point worth disscussing (at least at the present), since the treaty decided already upon the procedure and it will not have anything to do with the citizens. Unfortunatelly.
so what is her stance on free trade today?
NATO is no must, but i rather have a president from a country that is in as many of europes institutions as possible.
to some, having a border with the USSR meant to be neutral, even having good relations, for others it meant joining NATO when they were free to do so…
this has nothing to do with her being a woman and i resent the insinuation that her sex or gender is of any relevance to me.
i would be singing and dancing with joy if angela merkel were to be my european president. governing with the current SPD might be one of the reasons any politician might look for a career in europe…
I’m delighted to see these sort of speculations of the EU top posts! European media are full of content on the coming US presidential elections, for example, Ilta-Sanomat, one of the two big yellow papers in Finland, has a special section on their webpage on the US 2008 election, alongside sport, world news and economy, whereas interest in the crucial European top posts has been very low-profile in comparison. It simply can’t be balanced and good that over a hundred million Europeans can name several US presidential candidates, but aren’t even aware of the post of “EU president”.
Besides, right now I find it more useful to discuss who should be elected the European Council President and try to create democratic pressure on the issue, than going back to the never-ending world of institutional affairs and demand a merger of the top EU posts. I think even idealists should talk more about persons than institutions in this matter.
Quite a bit depends on who will be chosen for the Commission presidency, and to a certain extent, on the European election results, too. It’s easy to guess that the Commission and European Council presidencies will be taken up by a conservative and by a socialist, respectively, and general geography also has a role to play. The last two Commission presidents have been from Southern Europe, a fact which is not likely to go unnoticed in the horse-trading of the European Council.
But it’s sad that fewer people are involved in choosing the European leaders than the leaders of China…
I was reading this blog as well as a comment by Jean Lamassoure quoted by Le Croche-Pied (a Francophone blog) and that got me thinking. Obviously, I agree with what has been said, the three posts will need to be balanced in Politics, geography and experience, but most importantly in gender. What I mean is that there can´t be more than two of the three that have the same geographical, political origin or the same sex. Now I know this might be pushing the system a bit too much and it might not exactly work that way, but I can´t see three men at the top jobs, nor can I see three (or even 2) persons from southern europe (on the origin, the ideal would actually be to have one northern, one eastern and one southern…).
The problem with these speculations is that they nearly always only consider one post at a time, and when you think about all three at the same time, things just don´t add up. For example, the most likely choice for FM seems to be Solana at the moment, and for the EC seems to be to give a second go to Barroso. If you add to this that the most likely Council candidate from my point of view at this point is Junker, I think you reach a deadlock. It´s not going to happen. No woman. 2 southern europeans and no-one from properly northern europe or eastern europe. Three centre-right, relatively old men (albeit Solana is very apolitical these days). And mostly, 2 very heavily French-influenced men (Junker and Barroso), which Britain will have trouble accepting.
Therefore we need to accept that it is quite likely that a seemingly outsider could come and disturb this.
From there on, I think the most unlikely post to go as planned is Council president. There are too many names in the open, it´s too sensitive, and Junker doesn´t seem to want it badly enough. The least likely would be EC president I think, if only because no-one apart from Barroso seems to be particularly eager to try being the first commission president with an EU president above them, without mentioning that *not* to keep him on would re-open the pandora box of French Federalism v. British pragmatism of 2004.
Therefore, I think I will take the assumption that, assuming the EPP-ED once again wins the elections (which seems likely), Barroso will stay in place.
I say the election results seem likely, because to shift the EP to the left you´d need a major shift of major european countries, which isn´t likely to happen, say in the UK or Italy. Germany also seems unlikely. In France, the socialists already won most of the French quota last time around, so it seems unlikely they manage to beat their own score by a considerable margin. That only leaves Spain and Poland, and a victory for the centre-right in only one of them would be enough to keep the status quo, wereas the centre-left would have to win both.
Anyway, as I said, I think it is likely that Barroso will remain EC president. From there on that means Solana can´t be FM. If the FM position is open, who is going to be put there? It can´t be someone too high-profile, most would not demean themselves to be FM, not with all that talk of Council presidency going around. So who?
Well, Michel Barnier already said he was interested. But he is just another centre-right, French, old man. Nothing to enthrall the leaders of Europe about.
One person that has been mentioned on this page is Fischer. he might just be the right person for the job, having incredible knowledge of international relations and good relationships with pretty much everyone. Would he be a good consensus though? Politically, it would be an interesting situation. If taking it only post-by-post, there´s no way in hell a green would make it to any of them. But taken together, there is something less scary for mainstream politicians to think “there is a green in one of the top 3 eu positions” than “the EU´s FM is a green”. This would however nearly annihilate the chances of a centre-left in any other of the 3 positions, which the socialists might not feel very happy about. Which also means that the last post (Council President) would according to my own rule have to be a high-profile centre-right female from eastern Europe, and unless Ukraine joins the eu in the next fortnight, that´s not going to happen.
So, if not Fischer, who? That´s when you start thinking, an eastern european would be great, especially if Barroso is at the EC. Would Lech Walesa do it? he´s maybe a bit too high-profile…
Anyway, if my assumption that Solana can´t be FM is justified, the FM will be pulled out of a hat anyway so there´s no point speculating, apart from assuming it quite likely s/he´ll be from a new member-state, and I would say centre-right, as the anemic lack of centre-left governments in CEE would mean that they would not have enough support from their own government if they were centre-left.
Now this leaves the biggie open. Council president. If Barroso is at the EC, and some eastern-european centre-right male is FM, that means the council presidency will 1) have to be a female, 2) from northern Europe (how convenient, it´s where most female politicians can be found) and probably 3) centre-left.
This leaves three obvious choices: Hallonnen, Mary Robinson and Margot Wallstrom. Margot said she didn´t want to do it, but might she be turned?
Mary Robinson would be the perfect candidate for the centre-left, but is she too much of a unstable and radical person for heads of states and governments to accept?
In this light, Hallonnen´s position seems a lot better…
I think we can dismiss any other nothern centre-left females as the position is too high-profile to pull some-one out of a hat…
So that would mean, Barroso at the EC, Hallonnen or Wallstrom at the Council, and some eastern european FM?
Now, if the PSE wins the elections, the situation is entirely different, and I think somewhat dirtier.
First, that means Barroso obviously can´t go on as EC president. This frees up the southern European factor and makes it quite likely Solana will be FM. A centre-left at the commission is an interesting question.
One possibility is a promotion within the Commission. Wallstrom springs to mind, but there are others, maybe Mandelson or Verheugen? I think Mandelson, because of his unfortunate passport and his opposition to most of the EC concerning some free-trade issues, can be ruled out. Verheugen is an interesting name. He´s such a long-time commissioner, he nearly belongs to the furniture by now. It is quite possible he has the ambition, but with germany having elections next year as well, would he be able to gather the support from Angela Merkel that he would no doubt need to have to be promoted?
No, I think the most likely promotion would be Wallstrom. She certainly has had enough publicity. And it would, conveniently for the council, fill up the female position and allow the council presidency to be a man.
This man could then be some east-european centre-right diplomatic male, which sounds a lot easier, and pulling a former head of state of, say, the czech republic, seems something feasible.
If the centre-left commission presidency goes to someone not in the commission currently, it gets a bit more complicated. One possibility is Verhofstadt. It would make the French and the Germans happy, and bring a bit of good-ole´ continental Delorism, which a lot, even in Britain, would agree is the devil we know, rather than the scary aspect of having an east-european there or a female. This would pave the way for a female council president, with no particular political obligation (after all, the PSE would have won the elections, so why would they not have two centre-lefts at the top?) which brings us back to Tarja Hallonnen…
If neither Verhofstadt nor anyone inside the Commission gets the EC presidency, I suppose it would have to be some centre-left eastern european, which is a tough nut. But I´ve skimmed out the most likely of the most likely of the most likely by now so I don´t think it will come to that.
Anyway, sorry to write such a long message, it was just a result of my musings when reading this page…
By the way, I just realised Solana is PSE and not EPP as I thought, my bad.
However, it doesn´t change the general reasoning.
Quatremer is asking a thought provocking question on his blog how can Juncker be the President of the European Council when he argues against the end of bank secrecy in his home country?
http://bruxelles.blogs.liberation.fr/coulisses/2008/03/les-vingt-sept.html
Some bloggers and journalists in France have also suggested that Bronislaw Geremek would have the best-fit profile for the job of president of the European Council :
In French : http://publiusleuropeen.typepad.com/publius/2008/01/geremek-un-meil.html
Geremek has the right sort of profile, but he’s too old. Born in 1932, so he’s 6 years older than John McCain…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronis%C5%82aw_Geremek
I think that it is impossible to imagine the best “candidates” for the post of President of the European Council without consideration for the “candidates” for the other posts : President of the Commission and High Representative for foreign affairs. Its a kind of “ticket”
[...] Few recent nominations in the US have been as exciting as the current Clinton vs Obama run-off for the Democrats. Equally exciting are current speculations about the first “EU president” (see my previous blog entries about this), a post that has to be filled by 1st January 2009. However, there is a crucial difference between these two run-offs: US primaries are possibly one of the most democratic and transparent exercises (with their own limitations of course) while the nomination of the president of the European Council is like magic. – After the European summit in October or mid-December Monsieur Sarkozy, head of the (rotating) EU presidency, will present the (candidate for) President of the European Council – like the magician pulls the white rabbit out of his hat. Ergo, the nomination of the EU president is in no way going through any sort of democratic/parliamentary scrutiny. The only kind of pre-evaluation is exercised by media speculating names up and down (see also our own speculations here). [...]